Recreational Poli Sci

Are Military Veterans Against Gays Serving?
Short answer: they were significantly less enamored with the idea than non-vets in 2004 and 2008. David Welna’s report on NPR highlights the fact that the Obama administration faces the hairy decision of what to do about Don’t Ask Don’t Tell. What is interesting to me is that vets’ opinion is generally similar to nonveteran opinion, with a couple notable exceptions. One vibrant exception: controlling for age, gender, party affiliation, and other attributes, veterans in the ANES 2004 and 2008 agree with allowing gays to serve in the armed forces, but notably less so than the rest of the population. The graphic above depicts the probability of supporting gays openly serving in both years (assuming an otherwise “average” male respondent—average age, income, etc.). The dashed line, representing veterans is statistically significantly lower than nonveterans, even among Democratic identifiers. If veteran opinion will eventually favor gays serving at the level of everyone else, then Patrick Murphy, Genevieve Chase (FB org) are on an extended, leading edge of that movement. Veterans in the news make powerful advocates on military issues. Perhaps the increase among Republicans (vets and nonvets) between 2004 and 2008 is good news for supporters of repealing the ban. Even better news for these supporters if public opinion is supposed to matter: most people in the electorate think gays should be allowed to serve. After all, the graphic does not depict that most veterans disagree with with Murphy, but it does show reluctance.

(Question wording, for those who like the particulars: “Do you think homosexuals should be allowed to serve in the United States Armed Forces or don’t you think so?” Probabilities generated with a logit model and spost)